Climate Change resource

In my lectures, I try to give folks some insights into the massive changes we're seeing in the oceans, such as rising seas and acidification, and weather conditions around the planet.  One excellent resource is available online at the Guardian website:  the ultimate climate change FAQ.

As far as economics are concerned, here's the conclusion of one of the most recent articles:

It's important to understand that our choices aren't to either reduce carbon emissions or to do nothing. Our options are to either reduce carbon emissions or to continue with business-as-usual emissions that will cause accelerating climate change and damage costs beyond what we can accurately estimate. From an economic perspective, and from a risk management perspective, this should be a no-brainer. As economist Paul Krugman put it,

"So is the climate threat solved? Well, it should be. The science is solid; the technology is there; the economics look far more favorable than anyone expected. All that stands in the way of saving the planet is a combination of ignorance, prejudice and vested interests. What could go wrong?"

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic

Scientists are discovering links between the loss of Arctic summer sea ice and changes in the polar jet stream over North America and Europe; with the likelihood of more persistent and extreme weather in years to come.

The minimum extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in 1979 and 2011. Minimum ice extent has declined by 40 percent in that time, which has further increased warming in the Arctic and begin to effect weather in the Northern Hemisphere. (Image courtesy of The Cryosphere Today/Polar Research Group, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

See the article by Jennifer Francis research professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University

Weather patterns seem to be getting weirder during the past few years, with endless snow storms and deep freezes.  Then how about the winter of 2011/2012, with unusually warm and snowless conditions over much of North America? 

Jennifer Francis writes, "In early February this year, the jet stream plunged unusually far southward over Europe, bringing frigid Arctic air and snow to some areas that hadn’t seen those conditions in over half a century. During summer, persistent weather patterns are responsible for droughts and heat. The record heat waves in Europe and Russia in the past several years have been linked to early snowmelt in Siberia, and a sluggish high-pressure area caused last summer’s sweltering conditions in the south-central U.S."

This graphic depicts how the drop in high-altitude winds in autumn over the past 30 years has closely tracked the decline in Arctic sea ice (dashed line). The rapid warming of the Arctic has reduced the temperature difference between the Far North and temperate regions, slowing down the jet stream and leading to more persistent, or “stuck,” weather patterns. (Jennifer Francis, based on data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and National Snow and Ice Data Center)

Extreme Winters: When Jet Streams go Whonky

If this is global warming, why are so many people wading through more snow than ever before! Remember the snowfalls in New York and Washington DC.  And the roofs caving in Ontario & Quebec...?? Frozen fountains in Rome!? People trying to escape winter are getting hit with unusual snowstorms!

If you've attended my lecture on Ocean Currents, Changing Climates & Extreme Storms you might remember that I prefer the term Climatic Instability to Global Warming.  There's growing evidence of instability in the polar jet stream. The deterioration of the Polar Vortex could be leading to some of these extreme winter weather events.

The NOAA has an excellent website to explain the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents pattern. 

The graphic below shows the historic, relatively-stable polar vortex of 1968-96 compared to the destabilized vortex pattern we're experiencing lately in December (e.g., Dec 2009). 

The low Arctic pressure field is shown by purple colors in the figure for December 1968–1996. Strong Polar Vortex winds circle this pressure field, trapping cold air in the Arctic regions. In December 2009, this pattern broke down, Polar Vortex winds weakened (green colors) and cold Arctic air (which parallels the color contours) flowed southward.  Graphic credit NOAA

"This change in wind directions is called the Warm Arctic-Cold Continents climate pattern,” writes James Overland of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “The jet-stream breakdown last winter was the most extreme in 145 years of record. Loss of sea ice is certainly not the whole story behind cold mid-latitude winters, but it’s a constant push in that direction.”

“When the Polar Vortex — a ring of winds circling the Arctic — breaks down, this allows cold air to spill south, affecting the eastern United States and other regions,” says Dr. Overland. “This can result in a warmer-than-average Arctic region and colder temperatures that may include severe winter weather events on the North American and European continents.”

California Regional Weather Server provides up-to-date Jet Stream analyses, charts and archives.  Excellent resource!! Here's a current shot:

 

Thomas Homer-Dixon has done a great job of explaining the changing climatic pattern in an article in the Globe & Mail: And now the weather: nasty and brutish.