Presentation on Polar Vortex & Changing Climate

Here's a short excerpt from one of my recent presentations on board the Zaandam while cruising off the coast of Chile.  The aim here is to provide some context for understanding how ocean currents interact with atmospheric circulation to breed hurricanes and how the melting of arctic ice has influenced the polar jet stream and changed climate patterns around the world.



This is an experiment to see how effective it might be to use my 360 camera (Insta360 One X) for recording presentations.  Both the image quality and the sound could be much better; I'm still experimenting with tweaking the settings for low light conditions.  One problem is the extreme contrast between the screen and the background... very hard to compensate for this.  As far as the sound goes, I think the solution is to record the audio separately and then sync the audio with video in post-production.  A second camera from the audience's perspective will also give me some better versatility.

The 360 camera offers interesting possibilities because it is like having a camera crew with you.  Since it records in 360 I can select the point of view during editing - which gives me all sorts of camera angles to choose from.  In this video you can see that at times I focus on myself as the presenter and then pan the POV to show the audience.  When I have more time I will add more powerpoint images - as I did with the water skier losing his shorts in the video above.

Right now I'm preparing for my next lecture series on board the Viking Sun from Durban South Africa to London England.

Thanks for dropping by!  Happy travels!

Cheers, George

Transpacific Vancouver to Yokohama on board Westerdam

In late September I will be joining Holland America's cruise ship Westerdam to present a series of 10 lectures as we cross the Pacific Ocean from Vancouver to Yokohama (Sept 31 - Oct 15). 

On most cruises I like to present short video clips that I produce using Google Earth to highlight each specific itinerary.  Here's one that I've produced for the Westerdam cruise:

My lectures will highlight some of the fascinating creatures and shifting ecosystems as these northern waters and the Arctic, in particular, experience rapid warming with climate change.  My topics include:

Undersea Societies of the Pacific Northwest

Meet the Masterminds of the Pacific Ocean!

Alaskan Ecosystems: Adapting to a New Planet

Who Owns the Arctic Ocean, Northwest Passage and the Fish Below?

Japanese Jellies are a Stinging Success!

Hokkaido and the Kuroshio Current

Japan: Life on an Unstable Island

Perhaps you will be joining Jan and I!? If so, we look forward to renewing past acquaintances!  And, of course, we have the joy of making new friends!

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic

Scientists are discovering links between the loss of Arctic summer sea ice and changes in the polar jet stream over North America and Europe; with the likelihood of more persistent and extreme weather in years to come.

The minimum extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in 1979 and 2011. Minimum ice extent has declined by 40 percent in that time, which has further increased warming in the Arctic and begin to effect weather in the Northern Hemisphere. (Image courtesy of The Cryosphere Today/Polar Research Group, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

See the article by Jennifer Francis research professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University

Weather patterns seem to be getting weirder during the past few years, with endless snow storms and deep freezes.  Then how about the winter of 2011/2012, with unusually warm and snowless conditions over much of North America? 

Jennifer Francis writes, "In early February this year, the jet stream plunged unusually far southward over Europe, bringing frigid Arctic air and snow to some areas that hadn’t seen those conditions in over half a century. During summer, persistent weather patterns are responsible for droughts and heat. The record heat waves in Europe and Russia in the past several years have been linked to early snowmelt in Siberia, and a sluggish high-pressure area caused last summer’s sweltering conditions in the south-central U.S."

This graphic depicts how the drop in high-altitude winds in autumn over the past 30 years has closely tracked the decline in Arctic sea ice (dashed line). The rapid warming of the Arctic has reduced the temperature difference between the Far North and temperate regions, slowing down the jet stream and leading to more persistent, or “stuck,” weather patterns. (Jennifer Francis, based on data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and National Snow and Ice Data Center)

Extreme Winters: When Jet Streams go Whonky

If this is global warming, why are so many people wading through more snow than ever before! Remember the snowfalls in New York and Washington DC.  And the roofs caving in Ontario & Quebec...?? Frozen fountains in Rome!? People trying to escape winter are getting hit with unusual snowstorms!

If you've attended my lecture on Ocean Currents, Changing Climates & Extreme Storms you might remember that I prefer the term Climatic Instability to Global Warming.  There's growing evidence of instability in the polar jet stream. The deterioration of the Polar Vortex could be leading to some of these extreme winter weather events.

The NOAA has an excellent website to explain the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents pattern. 

The graphic below shows the historic, relatively-stable polar vortex of 1968-96 compared to the destabilized vortex pattern we're experiencing lately in December (e.g., Dec 2009). 

The low Arctic pressure field is shown by purple colors in the figure for December 1968–1996. Strong Polar Vortex winds circle this pressure field, trapping cold air in the Arctic regions. In December 2009, this pattern broke down, Polar Vortex winds weakened (green colors) and cold Arctic air (which parallels the color contours) flowed southward.  Graphic credit NOAA

"This change in wind directions is called the Warm Arctic-Cold Continents climate pattern,” writes James Overland of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “The jet-stream breakdown last winter was the most extreme in 145 years of record. Loss of sea ice is certainly not the whole story behind cold mid-latitude winters, but it’s a constant push in that direction.”

“When the Polar Vortex — a ring of winds circling the Arctic — breaks down, this allows cold air to spill south, affecting the eastern United States and other regions,” says Dr. Overland. “This can result in a warmer-than-average Arctic region and colder temperatures that may include severe winter weather events on the North American and European continents.”

California Regional Weather Server provides up-to-date Jet Stream analyses, charts and archives.  Excellent resource!! Here's a current shot:

 

Thomas Homer-Dixon has done a great job of explaining the changing climatic pattern in an article in the Globe & Mail: And now the weather: nasty and brutish.